Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-09-29 0.007079 0.007977 0.008959 0.010114 0.011440 0.012918 0.014692
2024-10-06 0.005579 0.006776 0.008201 0.010029 0.012329 0.015143 0.018876
2024-10-13 0.005016 0.006408 0.008160 0.010549 0.013753 0.017945 0.023919
2024-10-20 0.004290 0.005694 0.007541 0.010177 0.013895 0.019024 0.026769
2024-10-27 0.003776 0.005177 0.007089 0.009930 0.014114 0.020163 0.029776
2024-11-03 0.003451 0.004872 0.006877 0.009967 0.014706 0.021861 0.033795
2024-11-10 0.003284 0.004766 0.006927 0.010376 0.015874 0.024536 0.039689
2024-11-17 0.002998 0.004454 0.006634 0.010217 0.016125 0.025776 0.043376
2024-11-24 0.002798 0.004250 0.006480 0.010253 0.016676 0.027549 0.048205
2024-12-01 0.002571 0.003982 0.006198 0.010045 0.016784 0.028562 0.051780
2024-12-08 0.002455 0.003880 0.006172 0.010254 0.017625 0.030949 0.058270
2024-12-15 0.002306 0.003710 0.006016 0.010222 0.018025 0.032569 0.063484
2024-12-22 0.002088 0.003413 0.005631 0.009765 0.017625 0.032694 0.065806
2024-12-29 0.001953 0.003250 0.005465 0.009689 0.017945 0.034268 0.071495
2025-01-05 0.001922 0.003261 0.005603 0.010189 0.019434 0.038378 0.083481
2025-01-12 0.001768 0.003042 0.005307 0.009831 0.019159 0.038781 0.087012
2025-01-19 0.001645 0.002870 0.005085 0.009593 0.019103 0.039640 0.091773
2025-01-26 0.001568 0.002778 0.005004 0.009629 0.019627 0.041844 0.100267
2025-02-02 0.001542 0.002777 0.005095 0.010022 0.020968 0.046092 0.114859
2025-02-09 0.001454 0.002651 0.004933 0.009870 0.021076 0.047451 0.121967
2025-02-16 0.001393 0.002574 0.004861 0.009904 0.021611 0.049916 0.132645
2025-02-23 0.001312 0.002452 0.004690 0.009703 0.021571 0.050936 0.139328
2025-03-02 0.001278 0.002421 0.004700 0.009905 0.022516 0.054610 0.154743